METABOLISM · IMMUNITY · INFECTION

How does fatty liver affect pneumonia outcomes?

We study how the liver, the gut microbiome and the immune response interact, to better understand the course of pneumonia.

Lead institutionUniversity of Zagreb School of Medicine
in collaboration with the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases “Dr. Fran Mihaljević”

Artistic illustration of the connection between lungs, liver and gut, shown in a translucent body silhouette with teal and amber light links.

SteatoCAP A digital and translational research platform

Clinical data Immune profiles Machine learning

SteatoCAP mini-symposium and project launchLearn more ↗

Lead institutionUniversity of ZagrebSchool of Medicine

Funded by the European UnionNextGenerationEU

ProgrammeNational Recovery and Resilience Plan 2021–2026
Duration48 months
Budget€159,999.24
About the project

How metabolism shapes the course of infection

Roughly one in three adults in Europe has a fatty liver, and most of them do not know it.

Fatty liver is closely linked to obesity, diabetes and insulin resistance, in other words to metabolic health. For a long time it was seen only as a liver disease, but there is growing evidence that it changes how the whole body defends itself against infection.

Pneumonia is one of the most common reasons for hospital and intensive care admission. Our earlier studies showed that patients with fatty liver more often have a severe course of disease, but we do not yet know why.

In SteatoCAP we will follow more than 350 patients with pneumonia. A simple, painless ultrasound scan will show whether they have a fatty liver, and we will then track their immune response and gut bacteria. Artificial intelligence will help us find patterns in these data that the human eye cannot see, so that doctors can identify high-risk patients earlier.

1 / 3

adults in Europe have a fatty liver (MASLD)

2×

higher risk of hospitalisation for pneumonia in people with MASLD

50 vs 21 %

mortality in severe pneumonia in the ICU with vs without NAFLD, from our team’s earlier study

350+

patients with pneumonia will be enrolled in SteatoCAP

What does the name SteatoCAP mean?

Steato
steatosis, the build-up of fat in the liver (MASLD, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease)
CAP
a double meaning: community-acquired pneumonia and the controlled attenuation parameter, the ultrasound measure we use to quantify liver fat
Our previous results

What is SteatoCAP
built on?

Our research links metabolic health with infection outcomes. These findings are the starting point for further study of the gut–liver–lung axis.

01 / PNEUMONIA

Higher mortality in severe pneumonia

138 patients in intensive care
Retrospective cohort

Mortality

With NAFLD50.0%
Without NAFLD20.7%

Fatty liver was associated with a worse outcome.

Gjurašin et al. Life. 2023;13:36.

02 / SEPSISFAT

Higher mortality in sepsis

378 patients with sepsis
Prospective cohort

In-hospital mortality

With steatotic liver disease18.4%
Without steatotic liver disease9.8%

The association remained after statistical adjustment.

Krznarić et al. J Clin Med. 2024;13:798.

03 / IMMUNE RESPONSE

A distinct immune profile

108 patients with severe pneumonia
Prospective cohort

Selected markers at admission

SEMA3A↑
SEMA7A↑
CXCL10↑
SEMA5A↓

MASLD compared with the non-MASLD group.

The dynamics of immune markers during illness also differed.

Gjurašin et al. Int J Mol Sci. 2025;26:8095.

04 / LIVER-METABOLIC PHENOTYPES

Greater renal vulnerability

378 patients from the SepsisFAT cohort
Secondary analysis

Acute kidney injury

Mixed phenotype40.6%
Low-risk phenotype13.9%

Highest with combined liver and cardiometabolic burden.

Šamadan Marković et al. Metabolites. 2026;16:468.

Percentages show observed proportions within each study. The terms NAFLD, SLD and MASLD follow the original papers. Both sepsis analyses are based on the same SepsisFAT cohort.

Research team publications 16 papers
  1. Šamadan Marković L, Panić H, Krznarić J, Gjurašin B, Papić N.

    Liver-Metabolic Phenotypes and Renal Vulnerability in Community-Acquired Sepsis: Insights from the SepsisFAT Cohort.

    Metabolites. 2026;16(7):468. PubMed ↗

  2. Gjurašin B, Radmanić Matotek L, Šamadan Marković L, Papić N.

    Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Shapes a Distinct Semaphorin-Cytokine Immune Signature in Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

    Int J Mol Sci. 2025;26(16):8095. PubMed ↗

  3. Vrsaljko N, Radmanic Matotek L, Zidovec-Lepej S, Vince A, Papic N.

    The Impact of Steatotic Liver Disease on Cytokine and Chemokine Kinetics During Sepsis.

    Int J Mol Sci. 2025;26(5):2226. PubMed ↗

  4. Gjurasin B, Stemberger Maric L, Jukic T, Radmanic Matotek L, Zidovec Lepej S, Kutlesa M, et al..

    Adenoviral Pneumonia Outbreak in Immunocompetent Adults-A Missed Antimicrobial Stewardship Opportunity?

    Antibiotics (Basel). 2025;14(1):23. PubMed ↗

  5. Gjurasin B, Samadan Markovic L, Radmanic Matotek L, Papic N.

    The Role of Immune Semaphorins in Sepsis-A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Microorganisms. 2024;12(12):2563. PubMed ↗

  6. Radmanic Matotek L, Zidovec-Lepej S, Salek N, Vince A, Papic N.

    The Impact of Liver Steatosis on Interleukin and Growth Factors Kinetics during Chronic Hepatitis C Treatment.

    J Clin Med. 2024;13(16):4849. PubMed ↗

  7. Krznaric J, Papic N, Vrsaljko N, Gjurasin B, Kutlesa M, Vince A.

    Steatotic Liver Disease and Sepsis Outcomes-A Prospective Cohort Study (SepsisFAT).

    J Clin Med. 2024;13(3):798. PubMed ↗

  8. Vargovic M, Papic N, Samadan L, Balen Topic M, Vince A.

    Association of Immune Semaphorins with COVID-19 Severity and Outcomes.

    Biomedicines. 2023;11(10):2786. PubMed ↗

  9. Susak F, Vrsaljko N, Vince A, Papic N.

    TGF Beta as a Prognostic Biomarker of COVID-19 Severity in Patients with NAFLD-A Prospective Case-Control Study.

    Microorganisms. 2023;11(6):1571. PubMed ↗

  10. Gjurašin B, Jeličić M, Kutleša M, Papić N.

    The Impact of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease on Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia Outcomes.

    Life (Basel). 2023;13(1):36. PubMed ↗

  11. Šamadan L, Papić N, Mijić M, Knežević Štromar I, Gašparov S, Vince A.

    Do Semaphorins Play a Role in Development of Fibrosis in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease?

    Biomedicines. 2022;10(12):3014. PubMed ↗

  12. Močibob L, Šušak F, Šitum M, Višković K, Papić N, Vince A.

    COVID-19 and Pulmonary Thrombosis-An Unresolved Clinical Puzzle: A Single-Center Cohort Study.

    J Clin Med. 2022;11(23):7049. PubMed ↗

  13. Papic N, Samadan L, Vrsaljko N, Radmanic L, Jelicic K, Simicic P, et al..

    Distinct Cytokine Profiles in Severe COVID-19 and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    Life (Basel). 2022;12(6):795. PubMed ↗

  14. Vrsaljko N, Samadan L, Viskovic K, Mehmedović A, Budimir J, Vince A, et al..

    Association of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease With COVID-19 Severity and Pulmonary Thrombosis: CovidFAT, a Prospective, Observational Cohort Study.

    Open Forum Infect Dis. 2022;9(4):ofac073. PubMed ↗

  15. Šamadan L, Jeličić M, Vince A, Papić N.

    Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Novel Risk Factor for Recurrent Clostridioides difficile Infection.

    Antibiotics (Basel). 2021;10(7):780. PubMed ↗

  16. Papić N, Jelovčić F, Karlović M, Marić LS, Vince A.

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease as a risk factor for Clostridioides difficile infection.

    Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2020;39(3):569-574. PubMed ↗

Aims

Six aims, one question

To investigate how fatty liver affects the clinical outcomes of pneumonia and to understand the immunometabolic mechanisms behind a more severe course of disease.

Aim 1 · clinical

Clinical outcomes

To examine the association of MASLD with the severity and outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia.

Aim 2 · immunology

Immune response

To compare cytokine kinetics and T-cell phenotypes during pneumonia in patients with and without MASLD.

Aim 3 · microbiome

Gut microbiome

To track changes in gut bacteria during illness and relate them to disease severity.

Aim 4 · AI

Machine learning

To integrate clinical, immunological and microbiome data and identify predictive patterns.

Aim 5 · infrastructure

Biobank

To establish a biobank of samples with linked data for future multi-omics research.

Aim 6 · open science

Collaboration and education

To strengthen national and international collaboration, involve students and share results openly.

Study design

What we plan

A prospective observational cohort study of hospitalised adults with radiologically confirmed pneumonia, conducted at the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases “Dr. Fran Mihaljević”.

Target
350patients

Clinical cohort

All patients undergo liver elastography within 48 hours of admission and are followed until discharge and at visits on days 28 and 90.

Target
120patients

In-depth sub-cohort

Randomly selected by MASLD status, disease severity and key characteristics. Blood and stool are sampled on days 1, 7 and 28.

Target
900+samples

Biobank

Plasma, serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells stored at −80 °C, linked to pseudonymised clinical data.

Patient follow-up

all patients · target 350sub-cohort (n = 120)extended subgroup (30–40)
Admission≤48 helastography Day 1blood · stool Day 3 Day 7blood · stool Day 14 Day 28visit · blood · stool28-day mortality Day 90visit

Scroll horizontally to see all visits →

We combine clinical follow-up and liver elastography with immune and gut microbiome analyses, bringing the data together on a digital platform.

Early findings and progress

September 2026

Patient recruitment

41 %

of a 350-patient target

Research samples
17

Patients sampled

Patients from whom research samples have been collected to date.

Cohort profile
23%

Severe pneumonia (sCAP)

Proportion of enrolled patients. One dot = 1 percentage point.

Metabolic health in patients with pneumonia

Early data show a high prevalence of overweight, obesity and fatty liver in our cohort.

Body weight · BMI
Almost two thirds

have overweight or obesity.
32.6% have obesity.

OverweightObesityOther categories
All BMI categories
Underweight
0.74 %
Normal weight
33.33 %
Overweight
33.33 %
Obesity class I
19.26 %
Obesity class II
8.15 %
Obesity class III
5.19 %
Fatty liver · Steatosis grades
More than half

have liver steatosis.
38.3% have severe steatosis (S3).

S1 · MildS2 · ModerateS3 · SevereS0 · None
All steatosis grades
S0 · No steatosis
46.8 %
S1 · Mild steatosis
8.5 %
S2 · Moderate steatosis
6.4 %
S3 · Severe steatosis
38.3 %

Preliminary cohort description · September 2026. BMI and steatosis proportions refer to patients with available data for each measure. Data are updated as recruitment continues; these are not final study results.

Artificial intelligence

Patterns the human eye cannot see

Each patient in the study contributes hundreds of data points, from laboratory results and elastography to cytokines, T cells and microbiome composition. Machine learning brings them together and looks for combinations that predict a severe course of disease.

We use interpretable models and open-source tools, so that results can be verified and young researchers can learn to use them without prior programming experience.

Explore the methods
Random ForestGradient BoostingSVMlogistic regressionk-meansPCAROC · cross-validation
  1. Structured database

    Standardisation and integration of clinical, laboratory, immunological and microbiome data.

  2. Predictive models

    Supervised learning to estimate the risk of ICU admission and death, trained and tested on separate groups.

  3. Patient subgroups

    Unsupervised learning reveals immune and microbiome phenotypes that are not known in advance.

  4. Knowledge transfer

    Programming and AI workshops for researchers and students, laying foundations for AI in clinical research.

Work plan · 48 months

Four years, seven work packages

year 01

Set-up

  • ethics approvals and SOPs
  • eCRF and digital database
  • pilot phase in the first 6 months
  • start of patient enrolment
  • project launch event
year 02

Cohort and samples

  • patient enrolment
  • sub-cohort sampling
  • building the biobank
  • student workshops
year 03

Analyses

  • cytokines and flow cytometry
  • microbiome sequencing
  • first predictive models
  • conference presentations
year 04

Integration and results

  • AI integration of all data
  • ≥3 papers in Q1 journals
  • 2 new courses at the School of Medicine
  • Horizon Europe and ERC applications
Seven work packages · details
WP1

Management and ethics

coordination, reporting, ethical oversight

WP2

Clinical cohort

impact of MASLD on CAP outcomes

WP3

Biobank

integration for multi-omics

WP4

Microbiome

gut microbiota dynamics

WP5

Immunology

cytokines and T-cell phenotype

WP6

Digital and AI

data integration, machine learning

WP7

Dissemination

communication and visibility of results

The distribution of activities across years is indicative.

Team

An interdisciplinary research team

An interdisciplinary team of experienced and early-career researchers, continuing the work begun in the SepsisFAT project (Croatian Science Foundation).

Neven Papić, MD, PhD

Neven Papić, MD, PhD

Principal Investigator · Department of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine

Assistant Professor of Infectious Diseases at the University of Zagreb School of Medicine and consultant in infectious diseases at the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases “Dr. Fran Mihaljević”, where he serves as Head of the Clinic. His research links infectious diseases and hepatology, with a focus on immunometabolic mechanisms and outcomes of severe infections. He is Principal Investigator of SteatoCAP and previously led the Croatian Science Foundation project SepsisFAT. He has authored numerous papers in international journals, is a member of the ESCMID Global Programme Committee and serves as Secretary of the Croatian Society for Infectious Diseases of the Croatian Medical Association.

Clinical

  • Branimir Gjurašin, MDrecruitment, clinical follow-up, elastography
  • Juraj Krznarić, MD, PhDclinical outcomes, MASLD classification

Radiology

  • Asst. Prof. Klaudija Višković, MD, PhDradiological analysis, digital platforms
  • Armin Mehmedović, MDradiological follow-up and integration

Microbiology

  • Assoc. Prof. Arjana Tambić Andrašević, MD, PhDmicrobiome analysis
  • Josip Ujević, MScsequencing and processing
  • Marko Jelić, PhDmicrobiome analysis

Immunology and biobank

  • Assoc. Prof. Snježana Židovec Lepej, PhDbiobank, cytokines
  • Leona Radmanić Matotek, PhDbiobank, cytokines
  • Lidija Cvetko Krajinović, PhDT-cell phenotyping
  • Željka Mačak Šafranko, PhDT-cell phenotyping

Data and AI

  • Kristian Bodulić, MScbiostatistics, bioinformatics, AI

Education and outreach

  • Magdalena Sikora, MEdeducation, workshops, science outreach

Key study collaborators

University Hospital for Infectious Diseases “Dr. Fran Mihaljević”

14 collaborators

Their day-to-day patient care and research contributions are essential to delivering SteatoCAP.

  • Jelena BudimirMD
  • Nina VrsaljkoMD
  • Hana PanićMD
  • Nikola ŠoštarMD
  • Ema VinkovićMD
  • Sandra KomparakMD
  • Helena ŠušakMD
  • Petra Klarić-KukuzMD
  • Eva Smiljanić LotrecchianoMD
  • Marta HrastićMD
  • Martina BešterMD
  • Antonija JurišićMD
  • Marica TrogrlićMSc (Nursing)
  • Vesna ŽegrecMSc (Nursing)
Lead institutionUniversity of Zagreb School of MedicineDepartment of Infectious Diseases
Partner institutionclinical study, sampling and laboratory analyses
Science for society

Get involved

Throughout the project we run events for clinicians, students and the public of all ages.

6For clinicians and researchers

Round tables and workshops

  • 3 round tables with clinicians
  • 3 workshops on digital skills and AI in biomedicine
  • open biobank access under agreed rules
4For students

Learning by doing

  • 2 student workshops
  • 2 new courses in the medical and doctoral programmes
  • hands-on data analysis and research
100+For the public

Science outreach

  • 2 public events with over 100 participants
  • open day
  • workshops for children

UPCOMING EVENT

What connects pneumonia and fatty liver?

AI in search of answers

SteatoCAP research team

Mini-symposium and launch of the NRRP-funded SteatoCAP project

Fališevac Auditorium
University Hospital for Infectious Diseases
“Dr. Fran Mihaljević”, Zagreb

Online via Zoom

The joining link will be announced.

28.OCTOBER 2026

IN PERSON + ONLINE · ZAGREB · CET

Image for sharing ↓

Interested in research collaboration or joining the team?

We welcome clinicians, researchers and students interested in metabolism and infection.

Get in touch →